The majority of likely 2024 Texas voters support access to abortion being legal, and even more of them prefer government limit its interference in abortion policy. Moreover, support for abortion to save the life of the mother is nearly universal (90% agree).
The incumbent Republican Texas Supreme Court justices running for re-election currently lead their opponents on the Democratic slate. This lead is only due to the partisan advantage GOP down ballot candidates hold in the state – and because only a limited number are aware of the Republicans’ extreme anti-abortion decisions. When voters hear about their callous rulings that have put women with complicated pregnancies lives at life-threatening risk, there is a significant shift away from the GOP slate. The Democrats pull into essentially tied with a large pool of undecided voters who support abortion rights and overwhelmingly believe that abortion should be legal to save the life of the mother. Learning about the GOP slate’s extreme anti-abortion decisions motivates Texas’ Democrats and pro-abortion rights voters which could boost turnout in November.
There is a large poll of likely voters (3.6 million) who support abortion rights but do not currently support the Democratic slate. The task at hand is moving just over a million of these likely voters into the Democratic column. We have the targeting capability to zero in on these persuadable voters and this survey shows they will respond to criticism of the Republican slate’s draconian anti-abortion rulings. With adequate resources to deliver this message, the Democratic slate can be positioned for success in November.
A majority of Texans support abortion rights. Most likely 2024 voters in Texas support abortion (56%). This pro-abortion rights sentiment is broad, extending across ethnic and partisan lines. Even a significant number of Trump voters say they support abortion rights. Two-thirds of the electorate believe we should limit government interference with abortion (67%).
What best describes your view on the issue of abortion?
The incumbent GOP Justices are seriously out-of-step with Texans on abortion. Recent rulings denying women medical care while they suffer life-threatening, complicated pregnancies massively contradict how Texans feel. Support for abortion to save the life of the mother is nearly universal (90% agree) and the feeling behind this support is intense (72% strongly agree). This includes huge majorities of Republicans and Trump voters.
Do you agree or disagree that abortion should be legal to save the life of the mother?
Not enough awareness of the Texas Supreme Court’s anti-abortion decisions. Nearly half of likely 2024 voters are unable to recall seeing or hearing anything about the Texas State Supreme Court in the past year (47% say they have seen/heard nothing). The number who can recall something positive (33%) is lower than those who can recall something negative (44%). Among both groups, open-ended responses show what Texans can recall is dominated by the court’s conservative anti-abortion decisions.
The 47% of voters who can’t recall hearing about the Texas Supreme Court are a huge pool of voters likely to be unhappy with the Republican candidates’ anti-abortion decisions. These less informed voters believe abortion should be legal (55%) and 88% agree that abortion should be legal to save the life of the mother.
The Supreme Court races move to a statistical tie when the Republican slate is criticized for their extreme decisions that put women’s lives at risk. The Democratic slate all currently trail the Republicans. However, the race closes to a statistical tie after likely voters are presented with criticisms of the Republicans’ abortion decisions and the horrible impact they’ve had on women and the Democratic slate is attacked using the typical GOP playbook (anti-gun, trans athletes, immigration and “partial birth abortion”).
When their extreme anti-abortion positions are revealed to likely voters, the Republican judges lose vote share while Democrats pick up support and a relatively large number of voters remain undecided. This critical group of undecided voters still up for grabs strongly supports abortion and nearly 60% of them have not yet heard about the Republican incumbents’ extreme anti-abortion decisions.
Vote for Texas Supreme Court Justice
Educating voters on the Republican slate’s extreme anti-abortion positions increases their motivation to vote in November. After learning more about their positions, 86% of voters are motivated to vote, with 71% being extremely motivated. Motivation among independents increases by 13 points (79% motivated post-messaging, up from 66% initially) and the share of Democrats who are extremely motivated to vote rises by 12 points (78% extremely motivated up from 66% initially). Among voters who believe abortion should be legal, motivation increases by 8 points (85% motivated, up from 77% initially).
ABOUT THE POLL
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 800 likely 2024 general election voters in Texas between July 18-24, 2024. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% overall. Care has been taken to ensure the demographic, political, and demographic divisions of the population of likely voters are properly represented.